'The Netherlands have passed the inflection point in the number of infections'
The Netherlands appear to have passed the so-called inflection point in the number of confirmed corona virus infections. That is what scientists at TU/e say, who have been making daily predictions of the number of infections and deaths in several countries since the start of the corona outbreak in the Netherlands. This means that according to them there is now a flattening in the number of new infections, and that on average these will only decrease from now on.
The researchers came to their conclusion based on the ratio between the number of confirmed infections and the total expected maximum that they have calculated daily for the Netherlands (and other countries) since the start of the outbreak. "For the second day in a row, this ratio exceeds fifty percent," said Edwin van den Heuvel, a professor of statistics at Eindhoven University of Technology who initiated these predictions with two colleagues. “This means that we are now probably over half of the total number of infections measured. We are not there yet, but we are on the right track, as Prime Minister Rutte said yesterday during his press conference.” Their estimate of the ultimate maximum number of infections in the Netherlands has now fluctuated around twenty thousand for a few days.
These graphs show the ratio (red dots) of the number of infections (gray crosses) and estimated maximum (squares) for the Netherlands, specifically the province of North Brabant, Spain and Italy. Click on the images for an enlarged view.
NORTH BRABANT
A day earlier, the researchers had already seen the inflection point passing in the province of North Brabant, which is in line with the signals from the hospitals in Brabant that the number of new cases is decreasing. Spain also appears to have passed the inflection point, according to the same calculations.
The researchers substantiate this conclusion with figures from other countries, where they have calculated the same ratio daily. "In Italy around March 24 we saw that this ratio exceeded fifty percent," says Van den Heuvel. "In Italy this meant the actual start of the flattening and we saw new numbers decrease on average."
MEASURES SEEM TO WORK
The researchers were also able to demonstrate that the relative speed with which new infections of the virus have occurred in the Netherlands has decreased since the schools and other public institutions here closed their doors. They saw the same in Italy, Spain, France and Germany. "So it seems that the measures are working," says Van den Heuvel, although he hastens to say that it is very important to continue with the so-called 'intelligent' lockdown and not give the virus a chance to strike back. "We also have to wait and see how the new test policy here in the Netherlands will affect the figures," says Van den Heuvel. “The estimate of the maximum therefore remains somewhat uncertain. As in Italy, this can vary a bit. ”
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